US Elections 2020 Poll Tracker: The Selzer Poll Giving Donald Trump 7% Edge in Iowa is Hope for Republicans in Last Leg of Battle
The survey, conducted by Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co, show 48 percent of voters in Iowa backing Trump as compared to 41 percent in favour of Biden. For the Grand Old Party, a hope exists that the same trend may hold out in the rest of Midwest and the rustic belt -- where Biden's cryptic stance on fracking is suspected to have irked the White working class.
Washington, November 1: Less than 48 hours remain for the final day of in-person voting in the United States, and the aggregate of most major pre-poll surveys still give a 7-point lead to Democratic Party's Joe Biden against President Donald Trump. Despite nearly all surveyors backing Biden to win the 2020 presidency, the Selzer poll in Iowa has provided a ray of hope for the Republicans. US Elections 2020: How is The President Elected? What is The Electoral College? 5 Questions Answered.
The survey, conducted by Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co, show 48 percent of voters in Iowa backing Trump as compared to 41 percent in favour of Biden. For the Grand Old Party, a hope exists that the same trend may hold out in the rest of Midwest and the rustic belt -- where Biden's cryptic stance on fracking is suspected to have irked the White working class.
Notably, the aggregate of most major pre-poll surveys have shown a two-point lead for Trump in the swing state of Iowa. The prediction of Selzer, though outlandish, is considered credible as it is known for proving to be successful against the odds on earlier occasions as well.
In 2016, when Trump was similarly trailing in the surveys throughout Midwest, Selzer predicted a seven-point lead for him in Iowa. When the results were announced, he won Iowa by 9 points, and ended up winning a clutch of other swing states in rustic belt as well with a slim majority.
Can Selzer be accurate this time around too? This is the question which most Trump backers would be asking with a glimmer of hope. It should be noted that in the 2008 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, Selzer had turned out to be accurate in predicting the Biden vs Obama contest winner.
A section of observers may dismiss the attention drawn by Selzer by calling Iowa a state with comparatively smaller electoral worth as compared to Florida or Pennsylvania -- where Biden is leading. But if Trump is indeed leading by 7 points in Iowa, then most pollsters may have erred in other Midwest states. If the poll trackers turn out to be inaccurate, and Trump ends up pulling a shock victory, this would be the worst-ever prediction made by American psephologists in the last 40 years.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Nov 01, 2020 11:20 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).