Are they on it? Are they not on it? Well they are, sort of… Pakistan will be added on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) watch-list of countries come June 2018, if the panel of countries conclude that not enough has been done by Islamabad to stop terror financing or dismantling systems that support terror groups such as Hafiz Saeed’s Jaesh-e-Mohammad.

The decision to put Pakistan back on the watch-list was taken after a week-long plenary session of the FATF in Paris, France. The FATF is a global money-laundering watchdog that has 37 countries as members along with other organizations as observers such World Trade Organization or the United Nations Security Council. The action to reinstate Pakistan on the FATF’s terror-funding watch list was mooted by the Donald Trump administration which has taken incremental steps to make its displeasure known against Pakistan’s support of terror groups.

Pakistan being put back on the FATF watch-list is a situation of a glass half-full. As news broke out a couple of weeks ago of U.S.’s decision to move against Pakistan, hurried steps were taken in Islamabad to prevent such an occurrence such as taking over charities linked to Hafiz Saeed.  This situation allows Pakistani government to curb Hafiz Saeed’s activities which have grown increasingly raucous since the court discharged him. It also allows the government and military to act against groups attacking Pakistani civilians.

Being on the FATF list does not automatically ensure action by other countries or organizations against Pakistan. It would however contribute to a downgrade by credit agencies and make it harder for the Islamabad government to raise money internationally but it will not cripple it. As was the case, when Pakistan was on the list from 2012-2015 when the government actually managed to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund.

It is also doubtful that the eventuality of being put on the watch-list worries Pakistan because of its weaning away from funds coming in from Washington DC. Earlier this year, the U.S. government withheld military aid amounting to $300 million as it accused Pakistan of supporting terror groups in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s reaction mounted to a shrug.

As the war has dragged on in Afghanistan and the U.S. has realized the extent of Pakistan’s duplicity after the killing Osama bin Laden, successive U.S. administrations have reduced aid to Islamabad. To make up for the lack of American funds, Pakistan has turned to China which has provided funds under the garb of One Belt One Road project as well as increased exports of its arms to India’s nemesis. For example, in 2016, Pakistan imported 60% of its arms from China and U.S.’s share had dropped down to 20%.

A lack of dependency on American funds also means Pakistan is less answerable to the U.S. administration for its actions – from building its nuclear stockpile to its support for terror groups like the Haqqani Network.

The decision to put Pakistan on the ‘grey list’ was announced unilaterally by the U.S. administration and reportedly India did not take the lead role even while the plenary session was on. Hence, the right noises have been made but extent to which the Trump administration is willing to go to bring Pakistan to heel is not known. If the Trump administration was serious about targeting Islamabad, it has many more coercive actions at its disposal such as removing Pakistan from a list of countries called non-NATO allies. Following this, Islamabad should then be put on the U.S. government’s list of state sponsor of terrorism. These actions will mean more as it will allow the U.S. to pursue unilateral sanctions against Islamabad.

But, the U.S. does need the FATF’s decision to put Pakistan on the list to get the ball rolling. So come June, we will know if Pakistan is in the crosshairs of the Trump administration…or not.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Feb 24, 2018 04:36 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).