Iran And Israel: Specter Of War Grows Bigger In Syria

The ISIS has been pushed out of its last remaining towns and cities in Syria. But the crisis in Syria is far from over. The possibility of a clash between Israel and Iran grows every day.

What started as the Arab spring with the over-throwing of dictatorships in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has become an intractable war. Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad refused to vacate his position as the ruler of Syria in what he called a West-manufactured regime change across the MENA region. The Syrian civil war has now resulted in the congregation of regional and world powers in the region. The vested powers have taken sides and drawn lines to ensure and protect their circle of influence.

U.S. and Russia are on opposite sides in Syria as they have been through-out most of their history. On the one hand is Bashar Al-Assad, and his backers Russia and Iran. On the other the U.S. and Israel, that are backing his rebellion. There is also Turkey which has taken in about two million Syrian refugees, wants a regime change in Syria but is faced with growth of the Kurdish movement. Finally, the regional hegemon Saudi Arabia which is allied with the U.S. and supports ‘moderate’ rebel factions in the war against Assad.

As the war has raged on, Syria has become a chess board for countries in the region to expand their influence. It has also brought long-standing adversaries face to face with each other. Iran has expanded its influence from Iraq, Lebanon to Syria with its resources and armed forces spread across the region. Iran sent in its special troops the Quds force, an elite unit of the Iran Revolutionary Guard to handle operations in Syria. This unit has created a network that supports Shia factions across the region such as Hizbullah, a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. The Hizbullah and Iran have historically considered Israel their arch enemy.

The feeling is mutual as Israel considers Iran to be its biggest regional threat. Israel is hence backing factions fighting against Assad as well as the Quds force. It has also made clear that Iran’s installation of armed facilities in Syria is not acceptable.

Throughout the six years of Syrian conflict, Iran and Israel have tried to hurt each other though their proxies. But with the defeat of ISIS, Iran’s forces are now focusing on pushing back against Israel.

The most recent escalation was the shooting down of an armed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) launched from Syria but by Iranian forces into Israeli air space. Israel shot down the drone and then sent an air attack targeting the Tiyas airbase in central Syria, the facility that controlled the UAV. One Israeli F-16I fighter jet was shot down during the strike by anti-aircraft weaponry from Syrian territory.

Israel took this escalation further by launching two waves of strikes, hitting Syrian air bases, air defense units, command-and-control facilities, and Iranian targets. This has been followed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning that Israel would strike hard against any perceived aggression.

The recent escalation increases the likelihood of miscalculation and escalatory military action across the region. This incident comes despite the de-escalation agreement for southern Syria, signed by the United States, Russia and Jordan last November, which included a promise to keep Iran and its affiliated Shia militias away from the Israeli border. But in practice the agreement has allowed Iranians to come within 20 kilometers of Israel’s border in the central Syrian Golan region. This increasing proximity has meant Israel has mounted more than 100 raids in Syria in the last 18 months to drive regime forces away from the border and their frequency is growing.

Israel also believes that Hizbullah has access to a cache of 150,000 rockets and missiles along with precision targeting capability. This makes Israeli infrastructure and population extremely vulnerable to a targeted attack. Israel has hence stated its red lines of the removal of Iranian military infrastructure from Syrian soil and curtailing Hizbullah’s access to advanced weapons systems. It now alleges that both these conditions are being ignored. So does Iran want to go to war with Israel?

Conventional wisdom suggests no. Iran is already fighting in Iraq and Syria, its economy is just beginning to benefit from the lifting of decades of sanctions, it is working to create a bigger role for itself on the global scale and also saw weeks of popular protest against the government at home. Open conflict with Israel would also give U.S. President Donald Trump the excuse to tear up the Iran nuclear deal, re-impose sanctions, gang up with Saudi Arabia, and possibly order military intervention.

Does Israel want to go to war? The answer would be no again. Netanyahu is facing pressure at home with corruption charges, Israel would also have to contend against two fronts – Lebanon and Syria and hence would suffer much more damage and the U.S, its all-weather friend is headed by a mercurial President whose word cannot be counted upon. But Israel’s hawks could suggest a Blitz Krieg of an attack to cripple Iran and Hezbollah’s infrastructure near the border and to warn them that lessons had been learnt from the 2006 war.

For both countries, an all-out war seems out of the question. Yet, with both Israel and Iran trying to make incremental inroads into the other’s territory, a bigger conflict is bound to happen sooner rather than later.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Feb 21, 2018 03:20 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).