How Does Win Predictor Work in Cricket? How is Win Probability Calculated?

The game of cricket has seen the boom of technology simultaneously with its growth. Things which weren't a regular part of cricket earlier like the 'Third Umpire', 'Decision Review System', 'Zing Bails' among others, have been absorbed into the game and it has made it more transparent and adaptive to the Gen-Z audience and viewers. Teams are not behind in adapting technology as well. They have taken the help of some of the best cricket analysts in the world and used analytics to get edge over their oppositions. Broadcaster have been also using analytics to reveal unique information about players and also added data-based features making the visuals unique and appealing to the viewers. One such feature is the Win Predictor.  What is LBW in Cricket? Know Meaning, Full Form and Rules of Form of Dismissal.

The Win Predictor model, generally visible in the scorecard of the broadcaster's feed of a cricket match, reveals the chances of a team to win the game or it can be said that it calculates the win probability of a team. It recently came into the notice of viewers during the India vs Pakistan ICC T20 World Cup 2024 match when the win predictor was heavily skewed in Pakistan's favour, but India eventually won the game. Fans eager to know, how does the Win Predictor work will get the entire information here.

What is Win Predictor? How is Win Probability Calculated?

Win predictor is a statistical tool in form of an algorithm which identifies critical factors that determine a game's progress and accordingly predicts the winning probability of a particular team. The tool uses a certain data set. Each data set is assigned a probability factor based on historical data. Using the historical data and information from each data set, the algorithm can then identify which team will most likely win.  In cricket, some of these data sets are the players on each team, the current run rate of a team, how many overs are left in a match, the pitch and weather conditions, and whether the game is played at a home stadium or away.

Despite the win predictor being an advanced technology, it has its limitations too. The pitch and the conditions in cricket being a massive variable, standardization of datasets can be error prone. That is why at times the win predictor algorithm might be inaccurate in predicting the correct winning probability. Also, the pitch and the ground conditions change during a certain match too. This also makes the predictions of winning probability made earlier in the match based on the conditions at that time irrelevant during the later stages.  These limitations are the reasons why the predictions made by the win predictor doesn't always match with the final result. What is Super Over in T20 Cricket? Rules, History And All You Need to Know About the One-Over Decider.

Like the DRS technologies like hawk-eye, snickometer or hotspot have a lot of room for improvement, same can be said for the win predictor algorithm. As more and more data sets will be added to it and pitch conditions sample size will get bigger, it will deliver more accurate predictions of the eventual outcome of the match.  Until then, although it is not the final judgement of the result, the win predictor can still definitely indicate how the match is going and what is the likely outcome of the match in that particular situation, making it easier for the viewers.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jun 10, 2024 04:23 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).