Disease X: WHO Predicts Complete Wipe Out of Humankind, Should We Be Worried Yet?

Centuries ago, the Black Death, a plague caused by the Yersinia pestis, purged more than 30-40 percent of Europe’s population and killed an estimated 25 million people worldwide. It took the world over two centuries to finally shake off the contagion and go back to its previous state. In 1918, around 500 million people died of an influenza epidemic. And it seems that we could be on the brink of another contagion that could threaten to wipe humanity off the face of the earth. Enter Disease X, a disease WHO scientists feel can cause a global epidemic in the future. It's a part of WHO's Blueprint list of priority diseases that needs accelerated R&D for screening, treatment and prevention.

The deadly disease joins the ranks of other medical menaces like Zika, Rift Valley fever, Lassa fever and Ebola. But do you know what marks Disease X differently from the others? It doesn’t formally exist! WHO in its press release has mentioned, “Disease X represents the knowledge that a serious international epidemic could be caused by a pathogen currently unknown to cause human disease.”

Dr Pradip Shah, HOD and General Medicine Specialist at Fortis Hospital, Mulund explains, “In medical parlance, anything unknown, like a diagnosis or a virus that we haven’t encountered before, is labelled as X. Disease X simply refers to a hypothetical disease caused by a virus that could jump species and infect humans. It could be spread from any animal, including moneys, dogs, etc.”

This means Disease X is a hypothetical disease caused by a hypothetical pathogen and has the potential to become a global epidemic. So are we worried sick about a disease that exist only in the scientists’ imagination? It’s a little complicated than that.

Dr Om Shrivastav, Consultant -- Infectious Diseases and Immunology, says that although Disease X hasn't come formally into existence, researchers predicted its potential advent by observing how infectious diseases have emerged in the past. "Rapid urbanisation and deforestation creates closer contact between humans and pathogens through bats, primates and other animals that could become hosts to new viruses. Urbanisation shakes them from their quiet dormancy and forces them to become active again. These pathogens could be parasites like fungi, bacteria, viruses or protozoa that may make the jump from animal host to humans." That's how all the major infectious diseases in history have spread, be it Zika, Ebola, yellow fever, Dengue or Chikungunya.

Here are the real questions we need to ask:  Are there any grounds for panic? Should we await the imminent destruction of the human kind? How soon do we need to quarantine ourselves? Dr Shah allays all our fears with a different perspective: “The same kind of paranoia and fear was prevalent during the Ebola virus epidemic that spanned from 2013 to 2016. People were panicking, thinking that it will become a global epidemic and humanity as we know it will be wiped out. But no such thing happened and we were able to contain it to Western Africa.

“Given the medical advancements we have made it the last couple of decades, the chances of a disease wiping out human population are slim. We are better equipped to deal with it now than before. So although some casualty can be expected, but not to the degree it is being projected,” he says.

Only time can tell whether we can survive a global epidemic if Disease X were to break out. But one thing is for sure. It's a clarion call for the governments of the world to drive good health care, prepare systems for surveillance, enable better reach of medical care to even the most remote parts of the country and prepare medical personnel to handle such precarious medical situations.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Mar 16, 2018 10:40 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).