Uttar Pradesh & Bihar Bye-election 2018 Results Tomorrow: Who Are Likely to Win Gorakhpur, Phulpur, Araria, Jehanabad & Bhabhua Bypolls?
Pollsters expect the BJP to retain both seats in UP, as no major anti-incumbency sentiment came to the fore in the party's one-year rule in the state.
Lucknow/Patna, Mar 13: The results of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar bye-election results will be declared tomorrow. Dubbed as the 'mega bypolls', the outcome is likely to impact electioneering ahead of 2019, when the Lok Sabha elections will be held. The two states - Bihar and UP - account for 120 seats in the Parliament's Lower House.
The battle in UP is being considered a litmus test for the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in the state, which stormed to power last year with a three-fourth majority.
The two seats being defended - Gorakhpur and Phulpur - fall vacant after the appointment of incumbent MPs - Yogi Adityanath and Keshav Prasad Maurya - as the Chief Minister and Deputy CM respectively.
Pollsters expect the BJP to retain both the seats, as no major anti-incumbency came to the fore in the party's one-year rule in the state.
Another reason for this prediction is the low voter-turnout recorded in Phulpur and Gorakhpur. Poor polling is usually linked to pro-incumbency sentiment by pollsters.
The Gorakhpur seat, for the past eight consecutive elections, has voted for the candidate endorsed by the Gorakhnath Mutt, whose incumbent head priest is CM Adityanath.
In Bihar, on the other hand, the arithmetic is in favour of the NDA. The Araria Lok Sabha seat, which was bagged by RJD's Mohammed Taslimuddin in 2014, slipped away from the BJP by a small margin.
"If we add the votes received by JD(U) in 2014, then we would had won with a massive mandate," said BJP candidate Pradeep Sinha, who emerged as the first runner-up in last general elections.
Similarly, the Jehanabad assembly seat was wrested by RJD from the BJP in 2015 by a narrow margin. The victory was linked by pollsters to the formation of the Mahagathbandhan - which led to the polarisation of EBC, OBC, minorities and Dalit votes in favour of the then Nitish-Lalu combine-led coalition.
From Bhabhua, the BJP has been winning since the past two assembly elections. With the death of incumbent MLA Anand Bhushan Pandey, his wife Rinki Pandey has been fielded on the saffron ticket. RJD's quest to bag the seat remains uphill, especially in the absence of party supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, who is lodged in jail after conviction in fodder scam.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Mar 13, 2018 08:32 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).