Results of all Karnataka Elections 2018 Opinion Polls: Who Will Win The State & What Surveys Have Predicted so Far for Congress, BJP & JD(S)
The median of all pre-election surveys signal a fractured mandate, with the ruling Congress inching close to the halfway mark of 112.
New Delhi, May 9: Electioneering has entered the final stage in Karnataka with less than three days left for the state to go to polls. Ahead of the high-stake electoral war, all eyes have turned towards the pre-election surveys in a bid to gauge the electoral mood in the state.
Of the six major opinion polls released in the past couple of months, only one has predicted a full majority government. Four others claim Karnataka would end up electing a hung assembly, with the regional force, Janata Dal (Secular), poised to play the role of kingmaker.
Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018 | A look back at all opinion polls released so far
India Today-Karavi predicts a hung assembly, with Congress holding the edge
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 96 | 122 | -26 |
| BJP | 84 | 40 | +44 |
| JD(S) | 38 | 40 | -2 |
| Others | 4 | 4 | 0 |
ABP News-CDSD-Lokniti expects no party near the halfway mark
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 97 | 122 | -25 |
| BJP | 84 | 40 | +44 |
| JD(S) | 37 | 40 | -3 |
| Others | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Republic-Jan Ki Baat is the only survey which claims the BJP could emerge as single-largest
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| BJP | 104 | 40 | +84 |
| Congress | 74 | 122 | -48 |
| JD(S) | 44 | 40 | +4 |
| Others | 4 | 4 | 0 |
C-Fore predicts victory for Siddaramaiah-led Congress
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 124 | 122 | +2 |
| BJP | 68 | 40 | -28 |
| JD(S) | 21 | 40 | -15 |
| Others | 2 | 4 | -2 |
TV9/C-Voter calls it a close fight
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 102 | 122 | -20 |
| BJP | 96 | 40 | +56 |
| JD(S) | 29 | 40 | -11 |
| Others | 2 | 4 | -2 |
Times Now-VMR separates BJP and Congress by inches
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 90 | 122 | -32 |
| BJP | 89 | 40 | +49 |
| JD(S) | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| Others | 4 | 22 | -18 |
Poll of Polls: Median of all pre-election surveys
The median of all pre-election surveys signal a fractured mandate, with the ruling Congress inching close to the halfway mark of 112. The BJP, despite not expected to dislodge the incumbent Siddaramaiah regime, is slated to improve its tally from 40 in 2013 to over 80 seats in the upcoming polls.
| Party | Seats Predicted (2018) | Seats Won (2013) | Segments’ Swing |
| Congress | 101 | 122 | -21 |
| BJP | 88 | 40 | +48 |
| JD(S) | 32 | 40 | -8 |
| Others | 3 | 4 | -1 |
A more accurate election result prediction could be made on May 12, when the polling will be concluded. Major research agencies are expected to release the exit polls immediately after the voting end at around 5:30 pm on Saturday.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on May 09, 2018 11:55 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).