Rajya Sabha Polls: Ahmed Patel's Midnight Win Recalled as BJP Repeats Modus Operandi in Bid to Oust BSP Candidate BR Ambedkar
BJP's ninth candidate - businessman Anil Kumar Agarwal - could emerge as the party's trump card to defeat BSP's lone candidate, former MLA Bhim Rao Ambedkar.
New Delhi, Mar 21: Pollsters brace for yet another tightly contested Rajya Sabha polls as the BJP has repeated its erstwhile modus operandi – galvanising the independents, allies and turncoats in bid to dent the Opposition's quota in the Upper House.
The strategy, though proved unsuccessful in Gujarat, had sent jitters down the Congress camp as it was only in the midnight that the latter's sole candidate, Ahmed Patel recorded a paper-thin victory – not before the Election Commission cancelled the votes of two BJP MLAs for "violating the rules".
RS Elections in UP: Will BSP's lone nominee face similar roadblocks?
In the election to be held on Friday, 10 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh will be up for grabs. Depending on the composition of the incumbent legislative assembly, the BJP is poised to win 8, while the Samajwadi Party and BSP 1 each, considering the Congress and RLD's committed support to the Mayawati-led party.
Under usual circumstances, the parties refrain from fielding candidates in addition to their winning quota.
The BJP, however, has fielded 9 candidates, instead of 8.
The ninth candidate - businessman Anil Kumar Agarwal - could emerge as the BJP's trump card to defeat BSP's lone candidate - former MLA Bhim Rao Ambedkar.
How the ninth candidate could ruin BSP's prospects?
To address this question, one needs to keep in mind the electoral arithmetic involved behind the election of a Rajya Sabha MP.
The value of each MLA's ballot will be 100 votes. The overall strength of the UP assembly is 403 MLAs. Keeping these facts in mind, observe the mathematical formula below used by the polling body to calculate the votes of the winning candidates:
Quota = [( Total MLAs x value of vote)/( Number of vacancies + 1 )] + 1
= [( 403 x 100 )/(10+1) ] + 1
= (4,030/11) + 1
= 3,664 (fraction vote discounted)
Therefore, each candidate would require 3,664 votes, or the support of at least 37 legislators to be declared the winner.
The BSP, which has 19 MLAs in the House, is expected to poll 1,900 votes on its own account. The party is being backed by Congress, which has 7 MLAs (700 votes) and the single legislator of RLD (100 votes).
Apart from the Congress and RLD, 10 of the 47 MLAs of Samajwadi Party would also be voting for the BSP candidate, party chief Akhilesh Yadav claimed.
While 37 MLAs of Samajwadi Party would be voting for its nominee Jaya Bachchan, the remainder would be supporting the BSP.
To arrange in mathematical order: BSP's BR Ambedkar's victory = 19 MLAs of BSP + 10 SP + 7 Congress + 1 RLD = 37 legislator votes.
BSP's ache: 1 SP turncoat and 'Mulayam camp's dissent
In what could spell defeat for the BSP, at least one Samajwadi Party MLA, Nitin Agrawal, will not be voting for Ambedkar, as he, along with his father Naresh Agrawal, jumped ship to the BJP in the past week.
Nitin attended the BJP legislature meeting today, assuring his vote to the saffron camp in the Rajya Sabha polls.
Apart from rebel legislator, the SP is also facing internal strife, as the internal conflict which broke out in the party ahead of 2017 assembly polls is yet to be resolved.
At least seven MLAs who belong to the 'Mulayam camp', including the former SP chief's younger brother Shivpal Singh Yadav, failed to turn up at the SP legislature meeting earlier in the day.
However, Shivpal later attended a dinner alongside estranged nephew and party president Akhilesh Yadav. While speaking to reporters, Shivpal said he would be voting for the BSP candidate "to defeat the communal forces".
BJP has 28 excess votes
Apart from the number of MLAs required to elect its 8 Rajya Sabha nominees, the BJP along with allies - SBSP and Apna Dal - has 28 additional MLAs. To elect the ninth candidate, it requires the support of 9 more MLAs.
According to reports, independent MLAs Raghuraj Pratap Singh aka Raja Bhaiyya, Vinod Saroj, Aman Mani Tripathi and Vijay Mishra are expected to vote for the BJP, apart from SP turncoat Nitin Agrawal.
With their votes, the BJP would fall merely four short of blocking BSP's Ambedkar.
All eyes remain on the seven SP legislators, who refrained from attending the meeting called by Akhilesh earlier in the day.
A win for the BJP beyond its quota would surely be a sweet revenge for the party after the rout in Gorakhpur and Phulpur Lok Sabha bypolls.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Mar 22, 2018 12:28 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).