'Modi-Fied' India at Number 5 in Eurasia Group List of Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2020
According to the Eurasia Group, the Modi government will use brute force to suppress the anti-CAA stir, which may lead to instability and direct clashes between his central government and the states ruled by Opposition parties. The polarised atmosphere will leave the Centre with little scope to bring the nation out of a deepening economic slowdown, the research body claims.
New Delhi, January 8: India under the rule of Prime Minister Narendra Modi features at the fifth spot in list of top 10 geopolitical risks for 2020 in Eurasia region, as prepared by the Eurasia Group, a top political research firm. The country, battling protests over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), has been deeply polarised on communal grounds, the think tank noted. Rohingya Refugees in Jammu & Kashmir Not Beneficiaries Under CAA, to be Deported: Union Minister.
The abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir and the exclusion of 19 lakh people from the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam acted as precursors to the current crisis, the risk-assessment body added. The demonstrations, triggered with the passage of citizenship law, will only escalate moving into 2020, it predicted.
According to the Eurasia Group, the Modi government will use brute force to suppress the anti-CAA stir, which may lead to instability and direct clashes between his central government and the states ruled by Opposition parties. The polarised atmosphere will leave the Centre with little scope to bring the nation out of a deepening economic slowdown, the research body claimed.
"The economic spillover is also noteworthy. The social agenda has empowered a key part of Modi’s base, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)—Hindu nationalists who oppose market opening and support economic nationalism. The RSS is the ideological parent to Modi’s BJP and helped ensure his reelection. An empowered RSS means that Modi has less room to maneuver on structural reforms," the report stated.
The crisis over CAA, brewing in India, is placed at the fifth spot in the list of geopolitical risks for this year. The chart is topped by the speculation of an institutional crisis in the US, if the anti-Donald Trump bloc alleges "rigging of 2020 US presidential elections" in case the incumbent President retains power.
Among other crisis in the list include the "decoupling of US-China tech sector" due to friction in ties, subversion of MNCs by populist leaders, increase in tariffs and duties by the European Union, climate change, US-Iran tensions, crisis in Latin America and the threat posed by Turkey.
(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Jan 08, 2020 12:08 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).