Chhattisgarh Assembly Election 2023: Congress Banks on Welfare Schemes, Bhupesh Baghel for 2nd Innings in Office; BJP Eyes Strong Comeback

Raipur, October 9: Riding high on a bevy of welfare schemes and popularity of Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, the ruling Congress is hoping to protect its citadel Chhattisgarh in the upcoming assembly polls, while the BJP is making an aggressive push to regain lost ground and force a close contest to avoid a 2018-like rout.

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress remain the most dominant political forces in Chhattisgarh, though the state has several regional outfits that have pockets of influence, while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is making a determined bid to challenge its well entrenched rivals and make a mark in polls to the 90-member House. Assembly Elections 2023 Dates: Election Commission Declares Polling Schedule for Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.

The otherwise “weak” opposition in Chhattisgarh is fast emerging as a serious challenger to the Congress which would like to retain a state which it won five years ago by a landslide after a 15-year-long wait. Just a year ago, the ruling Congress in Chhattisgarh looked comfortably placed, riding high on its populist schemes and regionalism rhetoric.

However, the scenario seems to have changed in the past few months with the Baghel government facing opposition heat over alleged scams, politics of appeasement and religious “conversions”. The opposition BJP has redesigned its poll strategy and is trying hard to corner the Congress over issues of corruption and “misrule”.

The saffron outfit is banking heavily on the popularity and mass appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to turn the tide in its favour. The BJP's star campaigner, during his visits to the state, has been making frontal attacks on the Congress government on a range of issues, especially corruption. The BJP state's unit, which appeared in disarray and riddled with factionalism, has turned aggressive in the past few months.

A series of meetings organised by BJP's master strategist Amit Shah and well attended rallies of star campaigner Modi seemed to have boosted the morale of party workers. During his four rallies in the last three months, Modi has targeted the Congress over corruption and alleged scams in every sector and government schemes, including coal, liquor, cow dung procurement and District Mineral Foundation (DMF) fund utilization, among others.

The PM has also promised to get the alleged scam in the state public service commission (PSC), which conducts recruitment exams, probed if the BJP came to power. The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP, which failed to make a mark in the 2018 assembly elections and drew a blank, is once again trying to make inroads in the state which has traditionally witnessed a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress. Assembly Elections 2023: Five Assembly Polls to Have 8.2 Crore Male, 7.8 Crore Female Voters, Says Election Commission.

The entry of Sarva Adivasi Samaj, an umbrella body of tribal organisations, in the poll arena has turned the contest interesting, with political observers saying it may damage the ruling party's prospects in rural and tribal pockets. The Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP), which also works for tribals, is a key regional player. Tribal communities comprise about 32 per cent of the state's population.

Even before the announcement of poll schedule, top leaders of the Congress, the BJP and the AAP made frequent visits to the state to address rallies and fine-tune their election strategies. While political parties' social media machinery has become active, cities and villages of the state are dotted with banners and posters of leaders and their parties.

The elections are crucial for the Congress, which ended the 15-year-long rule of the BJP in 2018 by registering a landslide victory. In the last polls, the Congress won 68 of the total 90 assembly seats, while the BJP finished a distant second at 15. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J), founded by former CM late Ajit Jogi, bagged five seats and its ally Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) won in two segments.

The Congress had polled 43.04 per cent votes, around 10 per cent more than the BJP (32.97 per cent) in 2018. The ruling party further consolidated its hold in the state with victory in bypolls held for five assembly seats after 2018. The Congress tally currently stands at 71. The BJP currently has 13 seats in the House, JCC(J) has 3 and the BSP has 2 seats. One seat is currently lying vacant.

The Congress is aiming to win 75 seats in 2023 by riding high on the popularity of Baghel, who has a significant hold over OBC and rural voters, and impact of the government's welfare schemes focused on farmers, tribals and the poor. The Congress' move to appoint senior leader T S Singh Deo, locked in a turf war with Baghel for months, as deputy CM in June and induct MLA Mohan Markam in the cabinet after replacing him as the Chhattisgarh PCC president in July were seen as attempts to stem infighting in the state unit and prepare it for the polls.

The Chhattisgarh government's direct cash transfer schemes covering farmers, landless labourers, unemployed youths and cattle owners are being considered a potent tool to win over large sections of voters by the Congress.

At the same time, Baghel's move to arouse feelings of sub-nationalism and promote regional pride during the last five years to counter the BJP's nationalism agenda has also become a talking point in the elections.

The Congress has often accused the BJP of neglecting “Chhattisgarhiya people” during its 15-year rule under the leadership of Raman Singh. The BJP is cornering the ruling party over alleged corruption, religious conversions and unfulfilled poll promises, including a ban on liquor, in a bid to make a comeback and wrest power.

The saffron outfit has accused the Congress dispensation of practising appeasement politics and claims it to be a government of ‘Bhupesh-Akbar-Dhebar' (referring to state minister Mohammad Akbar and Raipur Mayor Aijaz Dhebar). The opposition party has also alleged that religious conversions are taking place in tribal-dominated areas and claimed the government has failed to curb them.

The BJP has so far announced candidates for 21 assembly seats, while the ruling Congress is yet to declare its nominees. Both the leading parties have said they will fight the elections on the basis of collective leadership and not on the face of one politician, consciously avoiding naming their respective CM candidate.

The AAP, an ally of the Congress in the national opposition bloc INDIA, has also announced 22 candidates so far, indicating the coalition will not work in the state. The Kejriwal-led party is eyeing to make inroads by securing votes of regional outfit JCC (J) which has been virtually pushed to the margins after the death of its founder Ajit Jogi in 2020. Mizoram Assembly Election 2023 Date: Polling on November 7, Results to Be Declared on December 3; Check Complete Poll Schedule.

Jogi's outfit polled 7.6 per cent votes in the previous elections and won five seats, registering the best-ever performance by a regional party in the state.

Its alliance partner BSP got 4.27 per cent votes and won two seats in 2018. This time the Mayawati-led BSP has joined hands with the Gondwana Gantantra Party, which enjoys influence in certain areas.

The Sarva Adivasi Samaj (SAS) has floated a political outfit named ‘Hamar Raj' and announced it will field candidates on 50 seats, including all the 29 segments reserved for Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities. Both the AAP and the SAS are likely to eat into the rural and tribal voter base of the Congress.