In a closely-fought contest, the Congress emerged as the single largest party in Madhya Pradesh assembly election 2018, winning 114 out of 230 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, came close with 109 seats. Moreover, the BJP was routed in Chhattisgarh and defeated in Rajasthan by the Congress. The saffron party, however, managed to open its account in Mizoram, but saw its numbers fall from five to one in Telangana.

The BJP will tell us that the results of these five states, which were dubbed the semifinals ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, are not about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. We’ll be told there was anti-incumbency in both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. But the defeat of BJP in Madhya Pradesh sends a very clear message - Modi magic is fading away.

There was anger against Vasundhara Raje in Rajasthan, but Shivraj Singh Chouhan could have survived in Madhya Pradesh. There were growing sentiments against PM Modi-led central government that cost Chouhan his bid for the fourth consecutive term. Unlike Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, most issues that might have hurt the BJP in Madhya Pradesh pertain more to the central government than the state government.

From farmers' agitation in Mandsaur and Harda to protests by upper caste against the SC/ST Act and counter-protests by Dalits, the low MSP for crops, growing tribal disillusionment and hasty implementation of the GST, every main issue that hampered the BJP's performance in the Madhya Pradesh election is related to the Modi government more than the ousted Chouhan regime.

The row surrounding the SC/ST Act played a key role in the election outcome. While Dalits accuse the government of trying to dilute the Act, a section of upper castes says it hasn't done enough to stop misuse of the Act. The fact is the Modi government brought an ordinance to overturn the Supreme Court's ruling in its bid to pacify Dalits, but it left upper castes sulking. Chouhan did try to negate upper cast angst by assuring people that no arrests will be made in SC/ST Act cases without proper investigation, but failed. Verdict in Hindi Heartland States Gives Congress Hope for 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.

Though the election results cannot shed light on Modi's popularity, pre-election surveys showed the prime minister was less popular in Madhya Pradesh than in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. According to the Lokniti-CSDS survey, 39 per cent respondents in Madhya Pradesh said they "highly like" Modi, compared to 52 per cent in Rajasthan and 48 per cent in Chhattisgarh.

The gap between the popularity of PM Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi was lowest in Madhya Pradesh at 6 per cent, compared to 34 per cent in Rajasthan and 20 per cent in Chhattisgarh. Besides, 29 per cent respondents in Madhya Pradesh feel the Modi government is corrupt compared to 13 percent in Rajasthan and 17 percent in Chhattisgarh, showed the survey.

It won't be wrong to say that BJP's trump card - the Modi magic- did more harm than good in Madhya Pradesh. The vote is more against the BJP than for the Congress because except for the promise of farm loan waivers the grand old party did not offer anything big to the people. The Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi, made significantly improved efforts to defeat the BJP, but the Modi brand was strong enough to control the opposition.

BJP may have lost Rajasthan because of Raje's drawbacks and Chhattisgarh due to anti-incumbency, but its tally went down from 165 to 109 largely because of anti-Modi sentiments. If that sentiment grips other states and Modi rivals could capitalise it, the BJP will have to pay a heavy price in the 2019 polls. The Modi magic worked and won many elections for the BJP. But most of the victories were also helped by anti-incumbency, inept Congress and a divided opposition. This is not the case any more.

(The opinions expressed in the above article are of the author and do not reflect the stand or position of LatestLY.)

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Dec 12, 2018 03:48 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).