India has been witnessing a spurt in the number of coronavirus cases, with several states including Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal reporting a spike in COVID-19 cases. The country is on the last day of the 21-day lockdown which was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 24. In his address to the nation on April 14, the Prime Minister extended the ongoing lockdown till May 3, 2020 to prevent the spread of coronavirus. While we stay indoors to prevent the spread of the deadly virus, there are several questions about lockdown that cross our minds daily like - when will the coronavirus lockdown end in India and when would normalcy return in the country!  Is India in Stage 3 of Coronavirus? As More COVID-19 Cases Emerge Across States, Know Which Stage of Transmission India Falls In During This Pandemic.

As the number of coronavirus cases have witnessed a sharp rise in India, there is growing fear and panic in the country. Streets and markets across the nation wear a deserted look as all business establishments have been shut during lockdown. Public and private vehicles have been off the roads across all states in India in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. So far, India has reported 339 deaths due to coronavirus, with Maharashtra being the worst-hit among other states with 2,455 coronavirus cases till April 14. As of Tuesday,  the total coronavirus cases in India has seen a major spike and stand at 10,363 with 8988 active cases.

According to a forecast of  COVID-19 cases in India by lockdown patterns, a graph by IANS predicts two scenarios and different dates when Coronavirus can end in India as per the pattern:

  1. If three lockdowns are announced in India, with a gap of 5 days between each lockdown, the coronavirus cases in India will surge drastically. 

  2. If a continues lockdown of 49 days is imposed in India, the COVID-19 cases in the country will not increase after the lockdown and the Coronavirus will end in India by May 13, 2020.

In case of the first scenario: 

In the first case, if three lockdowns are announced in India, the shutdown will continue till June this year. The graph states that after the 21-day lockdown, if there is a second lockdown, it will be for a period of 28 days after April 14. But this will be after a break of 5 days. This means, if a second lockdown is planned, it will be around April 19-20, during which the coronavirus cases are set to rise in India, the pattern shows. The calculation will be: (21-day lockdown till April 14 + break of 5 days + 28-day-lockdown)

If there is a third lockdown, it will be around May 23 after a gap of 5 days following the second lockdown which ends on May 17. The third lockdown if announced, will be of 18 days, which will continue till June 9. The lockdown pattern graph reveals that COVID-19 cases will not increase after the third lockdown. The third lockdown is predicted to end by June 9 after which the COVID-19 cases too will see a drop. The calculation will be: (21-day lockdown till April 14 + break of 5 days + 28-day-lockdown+ break of 5 days + 18- day lockdown)

Take a Look at the Possible Lockdown Patterns in India:

Take a look: Forecast of #COVID19 cases in #India by #Lockdown patterns#Lockdown21 #CoronaAlert #COVID pic.twitter.com/KKRlCcfyYT

In the second scenario:

In case of a second scenario, a total lockdown of 49 days will be imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19 in India. During this time, there will be no breaks like in the first case. The graph states that after the continues 49-day shutdown, cases will not increase and the lockdown is set to get over by May 13 unlike in the first case, which will go on till June 9, almost 25 days more.

In India, the total number of coronavirus positive cases reached 1965 with an increase of 113 new COVID-19 cases in the last 12 hours. The total number includes 1764 active cases and 151 cured/discharged/migrated people, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare informed.

On March 31, an MIT researcher claimed in a paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) that the new coronavirus droplets could travel up to 27 feet by a sneeze or a cough, resulting in a turbulent gas cloud that could contain SARS-CoV-2 droplets. Lydia Bourouiba, associate professor at MIT and an expert in fluid dynamics, suggested to revise social distancing of six feet (2 metres) to limit the risk of exposure.

As the coronavirus pandemic continued to rage across much of the nation with the number of infections rising, the Prime Minister had announced a complete lockdown across the country for 21 days asserting that social distancing is the only way out to fight the battle against COVID-19.  He made a fervent appeal to people of the nation to stay indoors and not to step out except in case of an emergency. In his address to the nation, the Prime Minister said lockdown is being imposed on every state, union territory, district, village, mohalla and street, adding that any negligence in these 21 days will push the country back by 21 years.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Apr 14, 2020 12:18 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).