Monsoon Forecast: IMD Predicts Excessive Rainfall for South, West, Central India in September 2022

Brace for more rainfall, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted rainfall in the month of September. The India Meteorological Department released a press statement dated September 1, 2022 that read, "Monthly rainfall for September 2022 over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal."

Above normal rainfall in September

According to the release, normal to above normal rainfall probability is likely over most parts of India except many parts of northeast India and some parts of east and northwest India where below normal rainfall is likely. Tamil Nadu Rains: Flood Alert in Erode District After Water Discharge for Mettur Reservoir Increased.

IMD has predicted 75% excess rainfall or more in many areas of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Mizoram. It is pertinent to note that all these states have received excess or normal rainfall between June 1 and September 1, according to data from IMD. Further, floods due to heavy rainfall also had an impact on agriculture in these State.

The southern parts of Uttar Pradesh is projected to have more than 75% excess rainfall, the northern parts would remain dry with rainfall deficit between 35 and 75%.

Normal temperatures to prevail

The release further stated that normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except many parts of east and northeast India, some pockets of central India and northwest India where above normal maximum temperatures are likely.

Normal to above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest India and southeastern parts of Peninsular India where below normal minimum temperatures

are likely.

Isolated heavy falls in north-east

In its latest bulletin issued on September 2, 2022, IMD forcasted fairly widespread/ widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls and thunderstorm/ lightning, very likely over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the next 5 days. It added that Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura shall recieve isolated heavy falls and thunderstorm/ lightning during September 2 to 4.

Meanwhile, isolated very heavy rainfall is also likely over Arunachal Pradesh on September 2 and 3 and Assam and Meghalaya on September 3, 2022. On the other hand, subdued rainfall activity is predicted over plains of northwest India and over Central India during the next 5 days.

Sea Surface Temperate (SST)

Currently, La Niña conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) forecast indicates that the La Niña conditions are likely to continue up to the end of the year. In addition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) also have some influence on Indian monsoon.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Sep 02, 2022 05:36 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).