Monsoon 2021: Conditions are Likely to Become Favorable For Onset of Southwest Monsoon Over Kerala Around May 31

Significant Weather Features

• The northern limit of Southwest Monsoon continues to pass through 5°N/72°E, 6°N/75°E, 8°N/80°E, 12°N/85°E, 14°N/90°E and 17°N/94°E. Conditions are likely to become favourable for onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala around 31st May 2021.

• Due to strengthening of southerly winds, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls very likely over North-eastern states and adjoining East India from 30th May, 2021. Monsoon 2021 Forecast: No Delay, Onset of Southwest Monsoon Over Kerala Likely From June 1, Says Ministry of Earth Sciences Secy.

• A Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lies over north Pakistan & neighbourhood in lower tropospheric levels with a trough aloft in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 66°E to the north of latitude 28°N; a cyclonic circulation lies over Punjab & neighbourhood and a trough runs from this cyclonic circulation to northeast Rajasthan in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence; isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm activity likely over Western Himalayan Region & adjoining plains of Northwest India during next 4-5 days.

• A trough runs from southeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha, Telangana and Rayalaseema and a cyclonic circulation lies over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast in lower tropospheric levels. Under their influence and other favourable meteorological conditions; scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorm likely over Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe and isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorm over remaining parts of south Peninsular India during next 4-5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Kerala & Mahe during next 5 days; Coastal Karnataka on 02nd June; South Interior Karnataka on 02nd June; Coastal Andhra Pradesh on 30th & 31st May.

• Scattered Heat Wave conditions very likely over West Rajasthan on 30th. Isolated heat wave conditions also likely over East Rajasthan, south Punjab, south Haryana and Vidarbha on 30th.

Main Weather Observations

• Rain/Thundershowers observed (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday): at most places over Kerala & Mahe; at many places over Coastal Karnataka; at a few places over Jharkhand, East Uttar Pradesh, Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places over Andaman & Nicobar Island, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Bihar, East Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam.

• Rainfall recorded (from 0830 hours IST to 1730 hours IST of yesterday)(1 cm or more): Kozhikode-3; Mangalore (Panambur) and Batote-2 each; Bahraich, Ranchi and Cannur-1each.

• Thunderstorm observed (from 0830 hours IST of yesterday to 0530 hrs IST today): many parts of Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit- Baltistan & Muzaffarabad and Himachal Pradesh; at a few places over West Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Madhya Maharashtra and at isolated places over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, East Rajasthan, East Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana and Marathawada.

• Yesterday, Heat Wave observed over many parts of northwest Rajasthan.

• Maximum Temperature Departures as on 29-05-2021: Maximum temperatures were appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at many places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad; at a few places over Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and West Rajasthan and above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at most places over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; at a few places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Punjab, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh and Vidarbha. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at most places over East Uttar Pradesh; at many places over Bihar; at a few places over Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and East Madhya Pradesh; appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at most places over West Uttar Pradesh; at many places over Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Gujarat Region; at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh; below normal (-1.6°C to

-3.0°C) at most places over North Interior Karnataka; at many places over Gangetic West Bengal, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Marathawada; at a few places over East Rajasthan and Madhya Maharashtra and near normal over rest parts of the country. Yesterday, the highest maximum temperature of 46.3°C was reported at Ganganagar (West Rajasthan) over the country.

• Minimum Temperature Departures as on 29-05-2021: Minimum temperatures were markedly above normal (5.1°C or more) at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and West Rajasthan; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5.0°C) at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad; above normal (1.6°C to 3.0°C) at a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Uttarakhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Odisha and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam; at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Saurashtra & Kutch and Madhya Maharashtra. They were markedly below normal (-5.1°C or less) at most places over East Madhya Pradesh; appreciably below normal (-3.1°C to -5.0°C) at a few places over East Uttar Pradesh; at isolated places over Telangana; below normal (-1.6°C to -3.0°C) at many places over West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh and Coastal Karnataka; at isolated places over Jharkhand, North Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and near normal over rest of the country. Yesterday, the lowest minimum temperature of 20.3°C was reported at Fatehgarh (West Uttar Pradesh) over the plains of the country.

• Meteorological Analysis (Based on 0530 hours IST)

• The northern limit of Southwest Monsoon continues to pass through 5°N/72°E, 6°N/75°E, 8°N/80°E, 12°N/85°E, 14°N/90°E and 17°N/94°E.

• Conditions are likely to become favourable for onset of Southwest Monsoon over Kerala around 31st May 2021.

• The Cyclonic Circulation over East Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 km above mean sea level persists.

• The trough from the above cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh & neighbourhood to Vidarbha between 1.5 km & 2.1 km above mean sea level across East Madhya Pradesh persists.

• The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan & neighbourhood between 2.1 km & 3.1 km above mean sea level with the trough aloft in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level roughly along longitude 66°E to the north of latitude 28°N persists.

• The cyclonic circulation over Punjab & neighbourhood extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

• The trough from the above cyclonic circulation over Punjab & neighbourhood to northeast Rajasthan at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• The cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood extending upto 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• The trough from the above cyclonic circulation over southeast Madhya Pradesh & neighbourhood to south Tamil Nadu across Vidarbha, Telangana and Rayalaseema at 0.9 km above mean sea level persists.

• The cyclonic circulation over central parts of South Arabian Sea & adjoining parts of Central Arabian Sea at 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.

• The cyclonic circulation over Eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.

• The cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea & neighbourhood extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.

Weather Forecast for next 5 days * upto 0830 hours IST of 04th June, 2021

Weather Outlook for subsequent 2 days from 04th June 2021 to 06th June 2021

• Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorms with heavy rainfall at isolated places likely over Northeast India.

• Scattered to Fairly widespread rainfall/thunderstorms likely over southern Peninsular India and islands of the country.

• Isolated to scattered rainfall/thunderstorms likely over East and Central India, Western Himalayan Region and adjoining plains of Northwest India.

• Weather likely to be dry over remaining parts of the country.

Weather Warning during next 5 days *

30 May (Day 1): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) very likely at isolated places over West Madhya Pradesh; with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, East Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana and Kerala & Mahe and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Lakshadweep. Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

• Heat Wave conditions very likely in some pockets over West Rajasthan; in isolated pockets over south Punjab, south Haryana, East Rajasthan and Vidarbha.

• Heavy Rainfall at isolated places very likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Kerala & Mahe.

• Squally Weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph) very likely over Northwest & adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea and Southwest & Westcentral Arabian Sea; Comorin & Lakshadweep areas; south Sri Lanka coast and along & off Kerala coast . Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

31 May (Day 2): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) very likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Gangetic West Bengal, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana and Kerala & Mahe and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Konkan & Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Lakshadweep. Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

• Heavy Rainfall very likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Kerala & Mahe.

• Squally Weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph) very likely over Northwest & adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea and Southwest Arabian Sea; Lakshadweep and along & off Kerala coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

01 June (Day 3): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty winds (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana and Kerala & Mahe and with lightning at isolated places over Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and Lakshadweep. Thunderstorm/Dust storm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

• Heavy Rainfall at isolated places likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and Kerala & Mahe.

• Squally Weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph) likely over Northwest & adjoining Northeast Arabian Sea and Southwest Arabian Sea; Lakshadweep and along & off Kerala coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

02 June (Day 4): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana and Kerala & Mahe and with lightning at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and

Lakshadweep. Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

• Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.

• Squally Weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph) likely over Southwest Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

03 June (Day 5): ♦ Thunderstorm with lightning & gusty wind (speed reaching 30-40 kmph) likely at isolated places over Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Telangana and Kerala & Mahe and with lightning at isolated places over Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Rayalaseema, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal and

Lakshadweep. Thunderstorm/Duststorm (speed reaching 40-50 kmph) likely at isolated places over West Rajasthan.

• Heavy Rainfall likely at isolated places over Assam & Meghalaya, Coastal & South Interior Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe.

• Squally Weather (wind speed 40-50 kmph) likely over Southwest Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into these areas.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on May 30, 2021 12:01 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).