New Delhi, March 25: A coronavirus infected Indian will pass on the virus to 1.5 persons in the best-case scenario and four persons in the worst-case scenario, according to a study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). The study also warned that community transmission of coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, may take anywhere from 20 days to a few months to be visible. The student was published in the Indian Journal of Medical Research. Coronavirus Outbreak Live News Updates.

If the worst-case scenario is considered and an infected person passes the disease to four people, it could lead to nearly 10.5 lakh total infections in just 10 interactions or 10 layers. This means that if one person infects four people, by the time that cycle happens 10 times, over 10 lakh people are infected, the study concluded as reported by News18. This figure comes from calculating four to the power of 10. Coronavirus Cases Surge to 562 in India, Over 40 Cured, 21-Day Long Lockdown Begins.

In the best-case scenario, the total infections in 10 interactions will be 57. This points out the importance of social distancing and self-isolation. Notably, the figures mentioned above arrived after taking into account data until late February – before India saw its second wave of the outbreak that has now infected over 550 people. If these numbers hold true, India is heading towards an unprecedented crisis.

According to government data accessed by The Hindu, the country only has 37,618 isolation beds, 9,512 ICU beds and 8,432 ventilators as on March 24. As on date, the central and state governments collectively do not have more than 60,000 quarantine beds.

According to the ICMR study, the coronavirus outbreak would be difficult to contain in "pessimist" scenarios in cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi if people who have had a travel history to infected countries or contact with the infected don’t isolate themselves.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Mar 25, 2020 04:07 PM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).