Modi-Xi Meet: Trying To Find Common Ground In An Antagonistic Relationship

Today, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in an “informal summit” in Wuhan and a part of the talks will be held in Mao Zedong’s retreat, a famous villa. A boat ride by the two principals or a walk among the pines is expected during the two-day event. The April 27-28 talks are high on symbolism and hospitality, similar to what was extended to Xi during his India visit in 2014.

The India-China bilateral since Narendra Modi became head of government has been big on symbolism but short on substance. Modi has gone through his term and the four years have seen India and China on opposing sides on many issues. Beijing has been much more of the antagonizer in the bilateral by  refusing to support India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, blocked India’s demand of designating Masood Azhar a global terrorist multiple times, claiming part of Arunachal Pradesh as Tibet and hence as disputed territory, and finally warning off India against action during the Maldives’ emergency this year. India for its part has stuck to its objection to China’s ambitious One-Belt-One-Road (OBOR) project which goes through disputed Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir.

In fact, the bilateral suffered intense tensions during the 2017’s Doklam standoff at the India-Bhutan-China trijunction during which the two countries’ military faced off for 73 days and was a low point for Beijing and New Delhi. Apart from Doklam, face-offs have also occurred in the east Ladakh region in 2016. On the Chinese side, India’s unwavering support to spiritual leader the Dalai Lama as well as those fleeing Chinese ruled-Tibet is a sore point that has been festering for sixty years.

Despite the multiple hotspots in the bilateral, the Modi-Xi talks are being billed as a ‘reset’ in ties after 2017’s hawkishness exhibited by both sides. But, New Delhi must realize the timing of the ‘reset’ coincides with Beijing’s suddenly frosty relationship with U.S. due to its trade imbalance and practices. U.S. and China have in the past month announced mirror trade tariffs worth almost $150 billion on each other with Washington DC taking the lead in threatening even more tariffs.

India too has suffered from Washington’s sudden turn towards protectionism that targeted steel being imported into the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump has also mentioned India’s tariffs on American products multiple times and hence Beijing’s turn to its southern neighbor is to capitalize on this common ground. The indication that Beijing wants India's backing to mitigate the risks of a U.S-led trade war came recently, "We have a lot of shared interests, concerns, and positions,"  The Times of India report quoted Lu Kang, China’s Foreign Office of Spokesperson as saying. "They (Modi and Xi) will discuss the latest trends of the world so there is a stable global development. I believe you will hear positive voices. China and India… are newly emerging markets as well as developing countries with big populations, so we believe the two countries will continue to uphold the globalisation so that it is more inclusive."

However, India has growing concerns over its ballooning trade deficit with China that stands at $51.1-billion in 2016-17 and New Delhi has accused Beijing of dumping cheaply manufactured goods to the detriment of its local market. China has hence predictably made some conciliatory noises to placate India, though it remains to be seen if these promises are met.

After 2017, China also seems to realize that strategic insecurity cannot be compartmentalized for New Delhi to focus on trade and hence acknowledges, “This time the two sides have decided to hold the informal summit between the two leaders. This is because both our countries attach great importance to each other on external strategy and not because of boundary question that still remains unresolved, and we need talk about it during the informal summit,” Chinese vice Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou said during a media briefing on Tuesday.

But, how much can 48-hours of talks do to allay India’s fears of being encircled by China and for Beijing of creating an ally against the U.S. From this side of the Himalayas, the talks come after a year that has seen China cement its reach in the South China Sea, expand its influence from Sri Lanka to Maldives to Gwadar to Djibouti, hence the crux of the bilateral is that strategic tensions today outweigh any common ground.

(The above story first appeared on LatestLY on Apr 27, 2018 06:25 AM IST. For more news and updates on politics, world, sports, entertainment and lifestyle, log on to our website latestly.com).