Japan Elections 2024: New PM Shigeru Ishiba Faces Litmus Test As Polling Begins for Lower House, With LDP Struggling To Stay in Power

Tokyo, October 27: Voting for Japan's House of Representatives commenced on Sunday (local time) in an election deemed crucial for the political stability of the country at a time of economic uncertainty, challenging foreign relations environment and public discontent. The election is a battle for a stable majority in Japan's lower house with all the focus on the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito bloc -- which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war period -- which is in the contest under new leadership following the resignation of Fumio Kishida.

According to a recent poll analysis, the ruling coalition is expected to lose its majority in the lower chamber for the first time in 15 years, and such a situation could lead to a level of political instability reminiscent of the 1990s Japan Times reported. This vote is seen as an early referendum on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's newly formed administration, which he risked by calling a snap election just nine days after taking office on October 1. Shigeru Ishiba Set to Become Next PM of Japan After Winning Party Vote, Former Defence Minister to Succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The election represents the first nationwide vote following a significant slush funds scandal that had sent shockwaves to the LDP, the dominant player in the political landscape over the past years. In recent days on the campaign trail, Ishiba has ramped up his rhetoric against the opposition to persuade the public that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is still the most reliable choice for governance, the Japan Times reported.

"We cannot afford to leave our country in the hands of an opposition who's not able to tell the electorate how it's going to act on issues like the economy, the Constitution, or social security," Ishiba said during a campaign stop in Tokyo on Saturday. Prior to the Lower House's dissolution, the coalition had a comfortable majority of 288 seats in the chamber, far more than the 233 needed for a simple majority. The number of seats being contested in the election is 465, including single-seat districts and proportional seats. Japan's Ruling Party Starts Crucial Election to Choose New Prime Minister.

The public's response to the new administration has been tepid. A strong performance in the upcoming vote would give Ishiba the political support he needs to advance his agenda and solidify his position within the party. However, the LDP is contending with its most challenging election in over a decade, according to the Japan Times. The final days of the campaign have been overshadowed by controversy regarding the party's allocation of political funds to local chapters, where candidates linked to the funds scandal are running despite not receiving formal endorsements.

The Buddhist Group-backed Komeito is also struggling to maintain its single-seat constituencies in Kansai, one of its traditional strongholds. Even the party leader, Keiichi Ishii, is facing a tough battle in his own Saitama constituency. The LDP would enter its worst political crisis since 2009 if it loses the majority in the Lower House, which may lead to a period of political squabbling and instability. In that case, Komeito and the LDP may have to begin talks on bringing a third party into the alliance.

Al Jazeera cited a recent Asahi survey, which suggested that the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is gaining ground and could win up to 140 seats in the election, up from its present total of 98, whereas the LDP may potentially lose 50 of its 247 seats. According to the Pew Research Centre, just 30 per cent of Japanese people surveyed in March had a favourable view of the LDP, while 68 per cent held an unfavourable view of the party. But the opposition did not fare any better in the public's opinion, as only 29 per cent of those surveyed held a positive view of the CDPJ.

The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) has called the election "crucial" for both the LDP and Ishiba, as it will help assess public trust in light of recent scandals and growing economic concerns, Al Jazeera reported. "It will serve as a critical indicator of whether the LDP can regain public trust and retain its dominance or if opposition parties can capitalise on public dissatisfaction," ANFREL stated.

As per Craig Mark, adjunct professor at Hosei University in Tokyo, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is also aiming to boost its support by promoting an image of "reliability and stability." If the LDP fails to retain its poll position in the ruling coalition, questions will be asked of Ishiba's leadership, raising the spectre of continuing political instability in Japan at a time of economic uncertainty and a challenging foreign relations environment, according to Al Jazeera. Analysts have also pointed to the health of Japan's defensive capabilities amid growing regional tension with nearby China, Russia and North Korea.

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