Mumbai, November 1: The upcoming Maharashtra polls will test the hegemony of the Shiv Sena in Mumbai's Mahim constituency, where MNS chief Raj Thackeray's son Amit Thackeray is making his electoral debut. BJP has added a layer of complexity to what otherwise seems like a three-corner contest involving Amit Thackeray, Shiv Sena's sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar and Mahesh Sawant nominated by rival Shiv Sena (UBT).

Despite Shiv Sena being its ally in the ruling Mahayuti coalition, the BJP has expressed its keenness to back the MNS candidate. Efforts are underway to persuade Sarvankar to withdraw from the race, according to sources. Devendra Fadnavis Reveals Reason Behind Fielding Sada Sarvankar Against Amit Thackeray in Mahim for Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024, Says 'BJP's Stand Is Clear That We Should Support Amit Thackeray'.

The Mahim constituency, which witnessed the birth of the undivided Shiv Sena (1966) and then the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in 2006, sits in the heart of the city, stretching from Century Bazar in Prabhadevi to Mahim Koliwada.

It is also dotted with landmarks like Siddhivinayak temple, Portuguese Church, Mahim Church, Citylight Cinema, Mahim Dargah and Sena Bhavan, now the headquarters of Sena (UBT), and is home to white-collared upper caste voters, who have traditionally been anti-Congress. Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Battle for State Heats Up As Ekhanth Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray-Led Shiv Sena Factions Set for Fierce Showdown in 47 Segments of 288 Seats.

Though voters in Mahim have mostly sided with the Shiv Sena in the past, Uddhav Thackeray's decision to align with the Congress as a constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) disturbed that equation, said a political observer. They also feel Uddhav has given up on the Marathi and Hindutva agenda, he said.

Sena (UBT) nominee Anil Desai won the Mumbai South Central Lok Sabha seat, covering the Mahim assembly segment, but Shiv Sena candidate Rahul Shewale got 13,990 more votes than the eventual winner here. In the 2009 assembly polls, Nitin Sardesai of MNS won from Mahim with 48,734 votes. The party's Sandeep Deshpande got 42,690 votes in 2014 and lost to Sarvankar. In 2019, Sardesai lost to Sarvankar but polled 40,350.

The numbers point to a support base of at least 30,000 voters for Amit Thackeray, who might benefit considering BJP's tacit backing, said an observer. Also, there is resentment against Sena (UBT) in this constituency dominated by the Marathi-speaking population, he said.

In this backdrop, 32-year-old Amit Thackeray might get an opportunity to script an MNS victory story here as the Eknath Shinde-led outfit doesn't have a formidable base after the acrimonious split in the Bal Thackeray-founded party in 2022.

Today's Shiv Sena is dependent on BJP in Mahim, he said. There is tremendous pressure on Sarvankar to pull out of the race, but he has remained unmoved so far, said sources. The last day for withdrawal of nominations is November 4. BJP's support to MNS could also have a cascading effect in neighbouring constituencies of Worli, which will see a high-profile battle between sitting MLA and former minister Aaditya Thackeray of Sena (UBT) and Shiv Sena's Milind Deora, and Shivadi, said an observer.

The BJP's gesture might prompt MNS supporters to back Deora in Worli as they known that their candidate Sandeep Deshpande won't be able to defeat Aaditya Thackeray, said the political observer. In Shivadi, MNS' Bala Nandgaonkar might get the votes of BJP supporters, putting up a formidable challenge before Sena (UBT) nominee Ajay Chaudhari, who might also face the wrath of unhappy traditional Sena voters, he said.

Mahim has 2,25,373 voters, including 1,12,638 men, 1,12,657 women and 78 belonging to the third gender. Raj Thackeray is also a resident of the Mahim assembly segment. Congress has some votes in this seat. Notably, the MNS chief had campaigned against the BJP during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections but changed his stand later.

The Congress has also some support in Mahim. Its candidate Pravin Naik had polled 15,246 votes in 2019. Former MNS MLA Nitin Sardesai said it's only the media that keeps talking about BJP's support for Amit Thackeray. “There is no official communication with us. We are campaigning extensively and are getting a very good response,” he said. Elections to the 288-member Maharashtra assembly will be held on November 20 and votes will be counted on November 23.

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