Moody's Lowers India's Economic Growth Forecast to 9.% For 2022

New Delhi, March 17: Global rating agency Moody's on Thursday lowered India's economic growth estimate for the calendar year 2022 to 9.1 per cent for its earlier projection of 9.5 per cent citing the adverse impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy.

"We now expect the economy to grow by 9.1 per cent this year, followed by 5.4 per cent in 2023. Our forecast revisions also factor in the somewhat stronger underlying momentum than we had not accounted for previously," Moody's said in its report Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 (March 2022 Update). WPI Inflation Rises to 13.11% in February; Crude Prices Spike.

Referring to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Indian economy, the rating agency noted "high fuel and potentially fertilizer costs would weigh on government finances down the road, potentially limiting planned capital spending."

Moody's said India is particularly vulnerable to high oil prices given that it is a large importer of crude oil. However, the country is a surplus producer of grain and agricultural exports will benefit in the short term from high prevailing prices, it said.

The Indian economy grew by 8.2 per cent in 2021 calendar year, after a 6.7 per cent contraction in 2020 due to the COVID pandemic and lockdowns.

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