Akola, April 23: A triangular contest is on the cards in the BJP stronghold of Akola where the altered political landscape and Congress' strategy to field a Maratha candidate may dent the prospects of the saffron nominee pitted against B R Ambedkar's grandson Prakash Ambedkar, trying a comeback.

The Congress, a constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, has given a ticket to Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, unlike in in 2014 and 2019 when the party had fielded a Muslim nominee- Hidayatulla Patel. The erstwhile bastion of Congress, Akola constituency in west Vidarbha had sent a heavyweight leader like Vasant Sathe to Lok Sabha, who had served as a Union minister in 1980-82.

The BJP breached this Congress citadel in 1989 with the party leader Pandurang Fundkar winning the contest. Barring 1996 and 1999, when Prakash Ambedkar was elected as MP from Akola, the BJP has retained its stronghold on the constituency, located in west Vidarbha.

Five constituencies in the Vidarbha region, including Akola, will go on polls on April 26. The BJP has fielded Anup Dhotre, son of sitting MP Sanjay Dhotre who won the seat in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019. Maharashtra Lok Sabha Elections 2024: MVA Announces Seat-Sharing in State; Congress To Contest 17 Lok Sabha Seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 21.

Political observers believe that factors like changed caste dynamics with the entry of Dr Abhay Patil, a Maratha, and reorganised political alliances in Maharashtra may dent the BJP's prospects this time. However, a BJP leader claimed the party will not only emerge victorious again but will also increase its vote share as he highlighted welfare schemes of the Central government and various works done by sitting MP Sanjay Dhotre. Referring to the splits in Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and NCP led by Sharad Pawar, senior Congress leader and former minister Azhar Hussain said there is a wave in favour of MVA in Vidarbha. "The Congress has fielded a good candidate (Dr Abhay Patil) with a clean image and good public connect," he said. Hussain claimed "Hindutva" votes will shift to Congress as Shiv Sena (UBT) is working in alliance with the Grand Old Party and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar). He said NCP workers from Akola stayed with Sharad Pawar after his nephew Ajit Pawar walked out of the NCP last year and joined the Mahayuti government.

"Additionally, the Congress' assurances including Rs 1 lakh annual financial assistance for women, apprenticeship for youths and raising the quota ceiling are evoking a good response from the people," he said. Hussain also said the Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) will more or less retain its vote share but votes of the urban educated may get diverted to Congress. BJP leader from Akola and two-time MLA Randhir Savarkar is counting on the infrastructure works initiated by sitting MP Sanjay Dhotre including the construction of roads, irrigation facilities and Central welfare schemes. "The voting pattern won't change much and the BJP candidate will win by a margin of 3 lakh votes. The overall voting percentage and the BJP's vote share will also increase by 5 per cent," he said. Senior journalist and political observer Shaukat Ali Mirsaheb is of the view that the main contest lies between Anup Dhotre and Abhay Patil.

"Anup Dhotre has inherited a strong BJP network as his father is a party veteran. The Dhotre senior enjoys a strong network in Akola district also," he said. He said the Congress candidate is a strong contender who is active in the social field and enjoys a good connection with all sections of the society including the Maratha community. "Anup Dhotre is politically inexperienced which may also favour Congress," he added. According to Mirsaheb, the "Modi factor" won't work in Akola this time. "Voters are worried over inflation, unemployment, MSP, and agriculture distress. There are complaints about people being left out of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) and about the PM Awas Yojana," he claimed. Speaking about the poll prospects of Prakash Ambedkar, Mirsaheb said the Dalit leader has been contesting from Akola constituency for the last 25 years. "But there is a question mark on whether Muslim votes will be transferred to Ambedkar," he said. Ambedkar was defeated by Sanjay Dhotre in the 2009, 2014, and 2019 elections. In 2009, Ambedkar lost by a margin of 64,848 votes and in 2019 by 2,17,696 votes. In 2019, Dhotre bagged 5,54,444 votes while Ambedkar finished second by scoring 2,78,748 votes. Maharashtra Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Of 48 Constituencies in State, Pune Tops With 8,382 Polling Stations, Sindhudurg Has Lowest at 918.

VBA chief spokesperson and vice president Siddharth Mokle said Ambedkar will get the popular mandate this time as he has been raising his voice against the "anti-people" policies of the government. "People have decided to send Ambedkar to Lok Sabha. They will not vote for candidates of BJP and Congress. Ambedkar has been consistently raising his voice against the policies of the government which are against various sections like farmers, OBCs, Marathas and Muslims," he said. Akola Lok Sabha constituency comprises six assembly segments, including three by BJP, and one each by Shiv Sena (UBT) and Congress. The Akola West constituency, which was won by the BJP, is currently lying vacant after the death of sitting MLA Govardhan Sharma. Out of 18.90 lakh voters in the Akola LS constituency, Maratha-Kunbi constitutes around 28 per cent, minorities including Muslims 20 per cent, tribals 8 per cent, while Mali, Dhangar and others constitute 20 per cent.